Batley & Spen - Phew

The Batley and Spen result - phew! I woke up at 4am with an uneasy feeling. I put the radio through my headphones, so not to disturb my sleeping wife. When I heard the result hadn't been declared, and the count was on-going, I feared the worst. It was clearly going to be close. As I listened to the result i held my breath and then shouted "yes" very loudly, which didn't go down well with my wife!

What are the lessons for a potential progressive alliance? Looking at the numbers:

                              2021                       2019

LABOUR             13296                     22594

CONS                    12973                   19069

WORKERS            8264                     -

LIB DEM                1254                    2462

INDEP                    816                      6432

BREXIT                   -                         1678

GREEN                    -                          692


MAJORITY            323                    3525

TURNOUT            47.6%                66.5%


My initial reaction - well done to the successful Labour Candidate. Thank you to Lib Dem, Green and any others who voted Labour in a tactical way - without that support the Tories would've won. Those who voted for the George Galloway Party laughingly called the "Workers Party" need to have a long hard look at themselves and the numbers. They nearly delivered a Tory victory. Is that what they wanted??? Is it really true that they wanted a Tory MP for Batley & Spen as a way of putting pressure on Keir Starmer to resign as leader of the Labour Party?? If KS resigned or was voted out, do they really think that would put Labour in a stronger position?

If the above is the case, those who voted for George G have declared themselves not to be progressive but to be weird allies of the Conservatives. The Left of the Labour Party and those on the Left outside the Labour Party have got a choice at this moment - do they want to be part of a serious, grown up, progressive alliance of broadly like-minded centre-left or centre voters who are going to work together to win the next election, or not. If not, they should do what George Galloway has done - form a new Party and stand on a platform of uncompromising Socialism. Good luck with that - if they decide to do that it won't lead to a Socialist Government - it will most likely lead to another Tory Government. So make the choice. Time is short now.                  

Comments

  1. Paul FletcherJuly 2, 2021 at 1:51 AM

    I think worth noting that the independent in 2019 was ex UKIP, and although tries to come across as a localist is clearly right of centre - the Tories were very worried that he would stand again and split their vote. So the right wing vote in 2019 was 27179 or 51% of the vote. In 2021 the tories got 37% of the vote. I wouldn't call Galloway left wing but his intention was to come across as further left than Starmer's labour and so Labour + Workers party on 21560 is 59% of the vote for left wing parties - more if you include the LD vote. So I am very happy to see a swing from right to left. And very grateful to the greens for not putting a candidate up which could have let the Tory in.

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    Replies
    1. Progressive Hexham ConstituencyJuly 2, 2021 at 5:53 AM

      Hi Paul
      I like your maths! It's a complicated calculation to work out what might happen if there was a straight contest between a single left of centre candidate and a single right of centre candidate - but like a lot of seats it looks like the left of centre candidate would win. That's in places like Batley & Spen which most people would regard as part of the Red Wall. When you do the same calculation in places like Hexham - the Tories are still ahead but with a good candidate, good campaign, popular polices and clear leadership it could be close. Particularly if a progressive alliance captures the imagination of non-voters, disillusioned former Conservative voters who don't like the current version of the Tory party and first time voters.
      Just heard Keir Starmer on the radio - he said the winning candidate represented everything he wants the Labour Party to be. Me too - I hope he goes further and reaches out to other parties.
      I think the Green Party did have a candidate but he withdrew - can't remember the reason but agree it was good there was no Green candidate to get a couple of hundred votes to the let the Tory in!

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