I've been asked to make it clear that this blog is not endorsed by the Hexham Constituency Labour Party. I'm a member of the Labour Party but my posts are in a personal capacity. Understandably it's against Labour Party rules to actively encourage people to vote for other parties at elections. I hope these rules will change but that is up to the Labour Party. I'm not particularly optimistic that this will happen - but without a different approach I think we are stuck with a Conservative MP in Hexham Constituency.
If nothing changes in Hexham in terms of an electoral pact between Labour, Lib Dem and Green Parties, I will be campaigning for the Labour candidate at the next General Election as under those circumstances Labour would have the best chance of winning, but it would require a miracle. Part of the campaign would be to appeal to Lib Dem and Green supporters to vote tactically for Labour. If on the other hand the 3 parties agreed to field a single candidate, then I would campaign for that candidate. Whatever happens between now and the next election I hope that one way or another the "opposition vote" will be united, either by formal electoral pacts or mass tactical voting, otherwise we are making it very easy for the Conservatives to win again.
I hope Keir Starmer takes a broader view of what "Leader of the Opposition" should or could mean. At the moment I guess it means leader of the 2nd biggest party in Parliament. A broader interpretation could be "leader of all who are opposed to the policies of the current Conservative government". Any Leader of the Opposition will be working out how he/she could become Prime Minister. Keir could take the same approach as all his predecessors - have a punt at it at the next General Election, with a Labour manifesto which doesn't talk about electoral reform, electoral pacts or potential coalitions and see how he gets on. Or he could take a more radical approach which accepts that, due to our electoral system and the strength of the SNP in Scotland, along these lines the Labour Party is very unlikely to win a general election on it's own. So rather than going down the same electoral black hole, he will forge out a plan for electoral success through a collaborative approach with the Lib Dems and Greens. The overall aim of such a collaboration would be to maximise the number of MPs with a view to a left of centre coalition government. Ex-Conservatives like John Bercow (and Rory Stewart - remember him??) are welcome to join in but they'd have to distance themselves from the previous right of centre policies they supported.
Regardless of the result of the Batley & Spen bye election, I hope Keir will start talking like this. What's wrong with saying Labour would be happy to be in coalition with the Greens and Lib Dems? It's just broadening the broad electoral church which is needed to win the next election.
All interesting stuff John and thanks for getting the conversation going. Personally I agree with you, and with the situation in Scotland I don't see how Labour can win a majority without a lot of tactical voting at the very least. I can see the issues around pacts (looks like back room stitch ups etc) and I can see that not fielding candidates in every constituency disenfranchises those who are not prepared to vote tactically.
ReplyDeleteI really believe that the collapse of the Labour vote in Chesham and Amersham was much more due to tactical voting than anything else. And I really hope that those who would normally vote lib dem in Batley and Spen will do the right thing. If we can keep the Tories out at both these by elections it might just make people see that this is the way forward.
The Scotland situation is very interesting. The SNP have successfully replaced Labour by adopting a left of centre set of policies which have popular support in a left-leaning population. The issue of devolution/independence is seen through the prism of perpetual Tory rule in Westminster. Whatever you think about Scottish Independence, the worry for us living in England is that we are doomed to ongoing Tory Governments without progressives in Scotland to work with. Remember the Milliband general election? One of the issues which was used to scare people against Labour was that he would go into coalition with the SNP. He said he wouldn't in the course of the election campaign as I think he thought it would be a vote-loser to say that he would. I'm not so sure. Imagine if he had said "Labour is struggling in Scotland and I like a lot of SNP policies so I am very happy to go into coalition with them in Westminster to deliver left of centre policies. This doesn't mean I support Scottish independence and the coalition wouldn't be based on a commitment to deliver this but we can agree on much more devolution as part of a coalition agreement and see how that develops over time. And we will get rid of Trident - what's wrong with that?". Keir Starmer could say something like this - or he could not but pretending that Scottish Labour is going to win a load of seats at the next election is not credible. Trident was a big credibility issue for Jeremy Corbyn. A lifelong anti-nuclear campaigner with a manifesto commitment to renew Trident?? That just wasn't credible and people saw through it. Remember all those ridiculous interviews about whether he would press the nuclear button. If I was running to be PM, I would answer that question "Of course I wouldn't press the nuclear button under any circumstances and I would get rid of our nuclear weapons as they are immoral and an expensive waste of money. A progessive government would work for the abolition of all WMD in the world and lead the way on this. We would also not send our troops to illegal wars and we would support and look after our veterans properly" That's more or less the SNP position and it's popular in Scotland. No reason why it couldn't be popular in England if you take on the arguments coherently.
ReplyDeleteFrom the Hexham Constituency perspective, Scottish Independence would have big issues in view of our geographical location so progressives in this area need to think about this and have a view. I'm half Scottish and my Mum supported the SNP. One of my earliest childhood memories was hearing my Mum whooping with delight when Winnie Ewing was elected many years ago in a by-election. Our neighbours in London thought it was all a bit odd!! I wonder what they think of the SNP now............